Grant: $214,462 - National Science Foundation - Aug. 30, 2009
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Award Description: This collaborative research project between the University of Miami and the University at Albany focuses on the prediction and processes inherent to the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs), in support of the proposed NSF Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment in August-September 2010. TC genesis is a multi-scale problem, in which a synoptic-scale precursor disturbance such as a tropical wave often exists as the source from which convective cloud clusters organize themselves into rotating mesoscale complex, culminating in a tropical depression. The overarching goal of this proposal is to explore the dynamics, observability and predictability of this process, with the following objectives: 1. To diagnose the dominant sensitivities and influence of observations on TC genesis on synoptic, meso- and convective scales. 2. To provide a seamless real-time ensemble prediction, adaptive sampling and data assimilation capability for use in mission planning during PREDICT. 3. To provide high-resolution, convection-resolving numerical model output for other PREDICT PIs for their hypothesis testing. The central scientific hypothesis of this project is that the initialization of the synoptic-scale, pre-depression wave trough is most essential for the accurate modeling of TC genesis. It is this disturbance in which the critical layer, which acts to shield an incipient rotating disturbance from wind shear and dry air intrusion, is hypothesized to exist. To investigate this and other hypotheses, an ensemble-based framework based on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an ensemble Kalman filter will be prepared for real-time prediction during the field experiment. After the field experiment, the effort will be devoted to analysis, including a convective-scale reanalysis that will include all data collected during the field campaign and can be used by other PREDICT PIs for their research.
Project Description: The project was funded in August 2009. The PI and collaborators have reformulated scientific hypotheses, and have arranged for several meetings and conference calls to take place in the next Quarter. Current students (on other projects) are preparing the software to be used during the PREDICT field experiment in Summer 2010. The PI is also preparing to recruit a new Ph.D. student at the earliest possible opportunity (Fall 2010).
Jobs Summary: A Ph.D. student will be recruited, to begin in Fall Semester 2010. (Total jobs reported: 0)
Project Status: Less Than 50% Completed
This award's data was last updated on Aug. 30, 2009. Help expand these official descriptions using the wiki below.