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MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY (INC)
Grant: $452,086 - National Institutes of Health - Sep. 30, 2009
17% voted satisfied - 83% voted not satisfied - 12 vote(s) cast
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Award Description: One potential result of climate change in the United States is increased frequency and intensity of wildland fires. These wildfire fires have the potential to destroy large amounts of public and private property, as was seen during the summer of 2003 and 2007 in San Diego County, California. In addition to this, there is evidence that particulate emissions from these extreme fire events lead to public health problems, particularly respiratory and cardiac related distress. It is important to understand the effects that climate change will have on the health of populations that are vulnerable to increased exposure to particulate emissions from wildfires. In this project we propose to create a comprehensive descriptive and predictive wildland fire particulate emissions model that will allow us to quantify the exposure of populations to particulate emissions during fire events. Levels of exposure will be compared to public health records to quantify the effect of wildland fire emissions on public health. In specific aim #1, we will construct an emissions profile for the 2003 and 2007 forest fires in our study area of Southern California. This will be accomplished using remotely sensed burn intensity, fire progression, posterior severity profile, and fuels modeling. In specific aim #2, we propose the use and modification of an existing plume advection and dispersion model to relate the wildfire emissions to particulate matter concentrations in downwind populated areas. The spatial estimate of particulate matter concentrations will be conditioned to in situ particulate matter concentrations measurements from ground stations. For specific aim #3, we will use the results of the plume dispersion model along with spatially explicit health surveillance data to quantify particulate emission exposure levels on a ZIP code or finer scale, relating these exposure levels to respiratory and cardiovascular health responses. Finally, for specific aim #4, we will use our modeling framework to examine realistic changes in the fire regime under different climate change scenarios and estimate the impact that changes in particulate emissions will have on public health. This will allow for public health officials to plan for scenarios where air quality may be affected by more frequent and intense wildland fires during a potentially longer fire season. In addition, systems can be implemented to preemptively alert the public to potential decreases in air quality from smoke events.
Project Description: The project start date is September 30, 2009; therefore, there was no quarterly activity.
Infrastructure Description: N/A
Jobs Summary: N/A (Total jobs reported: 0)
Project Status: Not Started
This award's data was last updated on Sep. 30, 2009. Help expand these official descriptions using the wiki below.
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